We know why Americans voted to reelect Donald Trump.
After Biden-flation, they wanted lower prices. After Biden-borders, they wanted fewer immigrants. After Biden-wars, they wanted foreign-policy restraint.
That’s what the voters wanted, but they may get just the opposite: sky-high prices, molasses-paced deportations, and avoidable wars.
To be sure, Trump has achieved much success—ending DEI in the federal government, for example, warrants high praise—and he can still fulfill his promises to the American people.
But, at the moment, Trump’s administration risks heading in the wrong direction. And when it comes to steering the ship of state, even minor deviations can lead to catastrophe.
Consider the cost of living. The president announced last week sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trade partners. After the resulting turmoil in the stock and bond markets, he scaled them down this week.
But even the current tariffs, if they stick, represent a dramatic policy shift and almost certainly will drive up prices. On Wednesday, Trump said he was maintaining a 10 percent global tariff and hitting China even harder than before, raising levies against that country to an astonishing 145 percent.
If these tariffs lead to a recession, millions of Americans will lose their jobs, receive wage cuts, or watch their pensions get hammered—worsening the affordability crisis.
On immigration, Trump’s performance has been nearer the mark. Border crossings have plummeted, and Americans are relieved to have a president who recognizes the stupidity of admitting millions of unvetted men from around the world into the country. That’s why Americans continue to approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, even as they have turned against him on the economy.
Nevertheless, there is a major risk of political backlash—and of failure to reverse mass migration.
Americans support deporting illegal aliens who have committed crimes, but they are wary of removing other types of immigrants. Yet Trump has sent alleged gang members—without due process—to a notorious mega-prison in El Salvador, from which even the innocent may never be released. Moreover, the administration has targeted legal immigrants, revoking the visas of foreign-born university students who have protested against Israel.
One motive for the splashy deportations may be to distract from an awkward fact: The rate of deportations has slowed since Joe Biden left the White House.
To be fair, a sealed southern border makes deporting large numbers of immigrants more difficult, since turning away new arrivals is easier than locating illegal aliens in the country’s interior. But Trump should have been aware of that challenge on Inauguration Day, when he promised to remove “millions and millions of criminal aliens.” (He’s on track for less than one million deportations.)
What about the third priority of voters in 2024: foreign-policy restraint? As with immigration, the results so far are mixed. But Trump now risks becoming a George W. Bush redux, not the “isolationist” that many experts feared he’d be.
That’s surprising, because Trump 2.0 had gotten off to a promising start.
In January, before he was even inaugurated, Trump dispatched special envoy Steve Witkoff to secure a Gaza ceasefire. In a single visit to the Middle East, Witkoff put more pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than Biden’s team had done in four years. The result: Fighting in Gaza was paused as Trump reentered the White House.
The diplomatic achievement proved fleeting. In March, the ceasefire collapsed. More precisely, Israel violated it with the U.S. president’s acquiescence.
As a result, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants have resumed attacks on Israel and the Red Sea in solidarity with the besieged Palestinians. The Trump administration, in response, has launched massive airstrikes on Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen, killing many civilians.
Trump last year had lamented Biden’s bombing of Yemen and asked why the president couldn’t use diplomacy to resolve international crises. Many peace-loving Americans are asking themselves the same question today.
Years from now, we may see Trump’s own relentless bombing of Yemen as a prelude to war against Iran. Though Tehran does not control the Houthis, Trump has declared he will hold it responsible for the group’s attacks. That’s on top of numerous threats of war that Trump has made against Iran.
Meanwhile, the administration has deployed stealth bombers and refueling tankers to an island in the Indian Ocean. The bombers carry 30,000-pound bunker busters, which Netanyahu hopes Trump will use to wipe out Iran’s underground nuclear reactors.
Though Americans tend to pay more attention to bread-and-butter issues than to foreign policy, many Trump voters were motivated by growing fears of global chaos. But if Trump launches a war against Iran—a partner of both Russia and China—he will bring the world closer to World War III than it has been in decades.
Clearly, now is a good time for Trump to chart a new course forward for America. Fortunately, on each of the issues discussed above—trade, immigration, and war—he can take simple steps to bring White House policy more in line with the preferences of the American people.
Trump’s decision Wednesday to reduce tariffs will minimize harm to businesses and consumers, but a continued trade war with China would do significant damage to the U.S. economy. Even the economist Oren Cass, one of the most prominent and insightful supporters of economic protectionism, has warned against decoupling from China too abruptly.
In the New York Times earlier this week, when Trump’s tariffs on China stood at 54 percent, Cass warned that “going from 0 to almost 60 so fast is unnecessary and unwise” since even the “most determined company could not shift production so quickly.” Cass recommended raising tariffs on China more gradually over a period of years.
To mitigate economic pain, the U.S. could also take up the European Union’s offer of a tariff-free trade pact, an idea that the Trump ally Elon Musk has endorsed. Such a policy, in addition to offsetting the harms of a trade war with China, would help ensure that America’s protectionist turn doesn’t mean a turn away from its allies.
As for immigration, Trump needs Congress to take action, as your humble columnist wrote last week. Trump should push for the GOP-controlled Congress to increase funds for his deportation program, pass an E-Verify mandate that prevents businesses from hiring illegals, and codify the president’s correct view that universal birthright citizenship is unconstitutional.
Lastly, Trump should resist pressure to wage war on Iran. This week brought signs that he is trying to do just that. During an Oval Office meeting with Netanyahu—who has long pushed for a U.S. war with Iran—Trump announced “direct talks” with Tehran scheduled for Saturday.
The surprise announcement reassured advocates of foreign-policy restraint, not least because it seemed intended to put Bibi in his place. Trump should go even further, nudging Israel to resume compliance with the U.S.-proposed ceasefire that it violated. A lasting Gaza ceasefire would not only put a stop to the Houthis’ attacks, but increase the odds of Israel’s getting back hostages held by Hamas.
If Trump can end the Gaza war and strike an accord with Iran, he will go down not only as a skilled dealmaker but a transformational peacemaker. And if he can reverse mass migration and end unfettered free trade, he will turn back the tide of globalism and inaugurate a new era of sensible nationalism.
But the president can’t accomplish these goals if he tries to govern more like an elected king than a president in a republican system, or if his actions are so aggressive that they incite a political backlash and economic calamity.
Trump hasn’t yet reached even the three-month mark of his second term, yet he already finds himself at a crossroads. Which direction he heads in now may determine the fate of his administration, his legacy, and ultimately, the country he leads.
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