The unexpected return of reformists to power in Iran has sparked renewed hopes for diplomatic engagement and a new agreement between Iran and the West concerning Tehran’s rapidly expanding nuclear program. During his campaign, President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian vowed to pursue diplomatic negotiations to lift economic sanctions on Iran. The involvement of Javad Zarif and his former deputy, Abbas Araghchi—both central figures in the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations and likely candidates for significant roles in Pezeshkian’s administration—signifies a serious commitment to renewed diplomacy with the West.
Kamal Kharrazi, the head of Iran’s Strategic Council of Foreign Relations and an advisor to the supreme leader, has emphasized the importance of lifting sanctions in his congratulatory message to Pezeshkian. Kharrazi’s message has been perceived as an indication that the Supreme Leader is also likely to support a new round of negotiations aimed at sanctions relief in exchange for concessions on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Despite these positive signals, the road to a new deal is fraught with challenges, requiring substantial political will and compromise from both Tehran and Washington. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement in 2018, Iran’s nuclear program has advanced substantially. As a result, a new deal cannot simply reinstate the prior restrictions or return to the original breakout times outlined in the JCPOA. Tehran’s enhanced nuclear capabilities and technological progress have outpaced earlier limits. Consequently, Washington must recalibrate its objectives to align with this evolved reality. The primary goal should be to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon by containing its program, rolling it back as much as feasible, and enhancing monitoring and inspections to quickly detect any breaches or attempts at weaponization.
Negotiations over sanctions relief will be complex, given Tehran’s experiences with past U.S. administrations. The failed 2021–22 negotiations under the Biden administration to restore the JCPOA highlighted Iran’s insistence on verification mechanisms and guarantees to prevent future American withdrawal. Nevertheless, securing such guarantees will be impossible without the backing of the U.S. Congress, which remains largely opposed to easing sanctions on Iran. For these talks to succeed, innovative approaches must be developed both in terms of the scope of the agreement and the mechanisms for verifying compliance and ensuring some of the economic benefits Iran seeks from a deal.
The political landscape in both Tehran and Washington offers limited maneuverability for a new nuclear deal. In both capitals, significant resistance is anticipated against any agreement. Even if negotiations commence immediately after Pezeshkian’s administration takes office, President Biden is unlikely to commit to serious talks with the November election approaching. Likewise, Iranian officials are expected to withhold major concessions until the election outcomes are clear, preferring to maintain leverage for subsequent negotiations with a potential Trump administration. Both the U.S. Congress and the Iranian parliament are poised to oppose any new deal vigorously. Consequently, Pezeshkian and the next U.S. president will confront the formidable challenge of advocating for a new deal amidst opposition within their respective capitals.
Another critical factor for Tehran will be its relationship with Moscow. Iran has deepened its ties with Russia, particularly since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, by supplying military drones used against Ukrainian targets. Russia has facilitated Iran’s integration into multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS+, and has been working with Iran on evading Western sanctions. It is improbable that Iran’s military and security establishments, along with the supreme leader, would endorse a deal that significantly undermines its relations with Moscow.
The West must strategically separate its tensions with Moscow over Ukraine from its negotiations with Iran. Maintaining the integrity of the P5+1 framework is essential for coordinating efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons—a scenario that would destabilize the region further and is also not in Moscow’s interests.
Opponents of negotiations with Iran in Washington argue that any sanctions relief will empower a regime known for suppressing its citizens’ rights and supporting anti-Israel militia groups across the region. While these concerns are valid, there is no better short-term alternative to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions than a limited negotiated agreement aimed at preventing the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear weapon for as long as possible. Achieving such a deal not only forestalls the immediate threat but also empowers moderate voices in Tehran and creates an opportunity for future negotiations over other malign activities of the Iranian regime. Without an agreement, the region faces the risk of dealing with a more belligerent Islamic Republic with nuclear capabilities. The costs of failing to reach an agreement are far too great for the region.
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