Make It a Quick One

The details of joint American–Israeli operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran are fluid. President Donald Trump in his late-night video announcing the attack called for regime change, and in comments to the Washington Post he claimed that the “freedom” of the Iranian people was his top priority.

Let us lay aside for a moment all the recriminations about Trump’s peace rhetoric on the campaign and his old condemnations of regime-change wars in the Middle East. It is hard to see how the current operation lines up with the current air-only approach to the war. No regime has ever been changed by air operations alone. (The most pertinent example is perhaps the Persian Gulf War.) It is not clear that there is any kind of organized domestic opposition that can rise up against the state, and the apparent strikes against dissident politicians in Iran suggests a lack of appetite on the American–Israeli side for fostering the most obvious sources of such organized opposition. In the absence of further information about the administration’s plans, it is safe to say that facts on the ground contradict the rhetoric—and it is the facts on the ground that are reality. The administration does not seem to have its heart in doing what it takes to change the regime: ousting the IRGC from its position of political and economic preeminence in Iran.

But, as of this writing, it appears that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in one of the strikes. This affords the most obvious opportunity to conclude what otherwise seems like an open-ended campaign of unclear goals. The removal of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela provides a sort of template. The Venezuelan regime remains intact under Delcy Rodrigue, Maduro’s vice president. Khamenei’s removal allows the administration to claim the victory, to say that it fulfilled its rhetoric about changing the management in Tehran, without risking the sort of quagmire that has marred American policy in this century. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled openness to a ceasefire and deescalation in a Saturday interview on NBC News. It seems as if this is the easiest way to get off the bus before it starts rumbling into really undesirable parts of town.

We have until the end of time to discuss the negative consequences of this operation—the damage to American diplomatic credibility after using negotiations as cover for military action yet again, the disgruntlement of a region that was largely coming to agreeable terms with the U.S., the obliteration of any remaining constitutional pretense that Congress holds the war powers in the American system. The urgent imperative is to put a clean bow on this war before it becomes militarily and politically disastrous. Claim victory and get out.

Happily, this seems to line up with the president’s own thinking. In a comment to the Axios journalist Barak Ravid, Trump said, “I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: ‘See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding.’” “Mowing the grass” is perhaps not the ideal model for dealing with Iran, but, again, the acute imperative is to wrap this thing up quickly. Doing so may bring political benefit, like the poll bump Trump saw after last year’s strikes on the Iranian nuclear program. But not doing so is unlikely to be popular: Extended wars in the Middle East continue to poll poorly.

Trump has been unique in his boldness in pursuing new paths in foreign policy—but also in his flexibility. The United States is not yet committed to another forever war; let us hope Trump’s particular virtues lead him to avoid it, rather than digging in on a dangerous, expensive, and probably unpopular conflict in a part of the world Americans have desperately been trying to pay less attention to for 20 years.

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