Predicting the outcome of war is a tricky business, especially nowadays with the Donald at the helm playing Alexander the Great while listening to Iago Netanyahu. So, any wisdom offered is from the past, Athens and Sparta to be exact, the former back then being the equivalent of the United States today. We all know the result: Athens, the Greek superpower, took on more than it could accomplish.
Back in 431 BC, when the Peloponnesian War began, Athens was the richest and most powerful state in the Mediterranean world; its navy had humiliated the Persians, and it ruled the archipelagos on its east and its west. It was also a democracy, just like the good old U.S. of A. is today. And like Uncle Sam, Athens wished to export its democratic system, even by force, if necessary. Sparta, on the other hand, was a military oligarchy, undefeated in war and proud of its military prowess. (A bit like North Korea, but with very handsome male warriors at the helm. Ugly or fat men were considered inferior.) The Spartans viewed the Athenians with suspicion; today they might have called them girlie men.
The story of the war was told by the greatest of historians, Thucydides, an Athenian senior commander who was exiled for failing in a battle. (For some strange reason, I do not think the Donald has read Thucydides.) The great Athenian leader Pericles died from the plague, and the golden age of Athens ground to a halt. Athens did not help herself by the Sicilian adventure, where she lost an enormous amount of men and even her best admiral, Nicias, who had wisely advised against the invasion. As a child with a Spartan mother, I rooted for her birthplace against my own, but looking back it was a childish wish.
Spartan imperialism came to an end rather quickly—she ran out of manpower—and Athens rebuilt herself and her long walls and her democracy. But the city was economically and militarily shattered. The lesson to be learned by the omnipotent Uncle Sam today is obvious: spread yourself thin all over central Asia and South America, and one day you’ll find yourself having to learn Chinese in order to please a superior power.
A rules-based international order following the collapse of communism existed in name only. NATO attacked Serbia in 1999, we attacked Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, and we attempted regime-changes in Libya, Syria, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The idea that it’s Trump who is warmongering is true, but so were those that came before him. Let’s face it: Uncle Sam likes to interfere, and when it doesn’t go his way, he goes to war.
But back to the Peloponnesian War. Arrogance led to the Athenian demise, no doubt about it. Despite democratic checks and balances, elite Athenians were not predisposed to living democratically. They asserted themselves relentlessly and savagely against those who did not obey them. Humans generally are not predisposed to living democratically. Democracy is unnatural because it is against our impulses and instincts. Self-assertion is much more to our taste; scratch the surface of man and you will find a miniature Napoleon.
The Donald’s case is no different. Now that he can, he will, and to hell with the consequences–which are terrible suffering for the Iranian people, whose great misfortune is to live where American and Israeli bombs will do away with electricity, clean water, and hospitals.
Mind you, it is not the first time American and allied bombs kill the innocent: Back in 1945, after the British ogre Bomber Harris ordered Dresden to be incinerated (having already killed 45,000 civilians in Hamburg earlier), Curtis Le May, an American commander, had his planes incinerate Tokyo. More than 105,000 civilians burned to death, mostly women and children. Most Japanese men were away fighting at the front. The two atomic bombs came later. So, spare the Donald for the moment. He has not reached, nor does he seek to reach, such horrible numbers.
But war is war, and bad things happen. The First World War, with its millions of dead, was a tragic and needless event that had nothing inevitable about it. In the critical days leading up to the war, the German foreign minister was away on his honeymoon, while the Brits were, as always, shooting innocent birds. Twenty million dead later, people were amazed how lackadaisical those responsible had been. History is the best teacher in the world, but people don’t seem to listen to it very much nowadays. Sending the 6,000-year-old civilization of Persia back to the stone age does not enhance America’s image. And as Napoleon said, “Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake.” Russia and China are benefitting from the spike in oil prices and advancing China’s reputation as a stabilizing superpower.
My message to the Donald is not to bother with Thucydides, but demand Iran give up the highly enriched uranium; in return he forgets about regime change. “Punto basta,” as they say in the land of pasta.
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