The Hitchhiker’s Guide to where we stand with a potential break in the government shutdown

Let’s start by tempering expectations. There is no deal or breakthrough to end the government shutdown. Certainly no bipartisan pact on ObamaCare subsidies.

But the wheels are definitely turning for the first time in more than a month on Capitol Hill toward ending the government shutdown.

Senate Republicans are working with some Democrats on amending the House-passed Band-Aid spending bill to fund the government. The new date would likely renew all funding through late January. But that is part of the negotiation right now.

This would be a straight spending bill with nothing on healthcare or add-ons.

OVER ONE MONTH INTO GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND NO END IN SIGHT – BUT PREDICTIONS RUN RAMPANT

With the vote matrix on the previous 14 test votes, Republicans would need an additional 5 senators who caucus with the Democrats to vote yes to break a filibuster and hit 60 votes. This could come Thursday or later this week.

However, what is the parliamentary elixir which prompts a group of Democrats to vote yes?

A date certain on when they’d deal with ObamaCare subsidies? An agreement on the unfinished spending bills?

That’s the key. And only that will unlock this Rubik’s Cube of a shutdown.

If the Senate approves it, this would then go back to the House. The House could potentially vote for the first time since September 19.

Presumably, the House would then align with the Senate.

That could happen this weekend.

SHUTDOWN SEEN FROM THE PULPIT: INCHING ALONG ON A WING AND A PRAYER

Fox is told it’s possible some House Democrats could vote yes – going against the hardline wishes of the Democratic leadership. Especially if there is nothing in ironclad legislation as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is asking for.

In short, some Senate Democrats could in fact tick off House liberals. That is exactly what happened with the shutdown question in March.

Moreover, Democrats could walk away with the potential of very little to show – despite their holdout on the shutdown.

I cannot begin to underscore the level of skittishness among many Democrats – especially moderates – and some Republicans about the shutdown.

There is grave concern about SNAP benefits, aviation safety, damage to the economy, workers off the job, people going without paychecks.

Pick your poison.

Today marked the first true time since the shutdown began that the legislative wheels began to move – in 35 days.

But no one is quite sure how to unlock this shutdown box – barring a crisis.

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It’s about the math. Always. And they might not have the right combination yet to solve the riddle.