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More immigrants left the United States than those who entered the country in 2025 — an occurrence that happened for the first time in at least a half a century, according to a new report from economists.
The report published this week by the Brookings Institution said, “There was a significant drop-off in entries to the United States in 2025 relative to 2024 and an increase in enforcement activity leading to removals and voluntary departures.”
“We estimate that net migration was between –10,000 and –295,000 in 2025, the first time in at least half a century it has been negative,” it continued. “In our assessment, net migration is likely to be very low or negative in 2026 as well.”
“Reduced migration will dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending, and gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate the sustainable pace of monthly job growth to be between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and believe it could be negative in 2026,” the report added.
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The report also said, “Though deportations and other exits receive more media attention, a slowdown in new arrivals, especially via humanitarian parole and refugee programs and across the Southwest border, has a bigger effect on reducing migration flows in 2025.”
“The first year of the second Trump administration has seen dramatic changes in immigration policy, resulting in a sharp slowdown in net migration to the United States,” according to the Brookings Institution. “We expect the pattern of restrictive policy and increased enforcement to continue or intensify through the coming year.”
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During the Biden administration, there was a surge in immigration with 2 to 3 million people arriving to the U.S. each year, The Washington Post reported.
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“Our estimate of net migration of –295,000 to –10,000 for 2025 differs from some other prominent estimates. The most recent version of the Congressional Budget Office demographic estimates, released in January 2026, suggests net migration of around +400,000 for 2025,” the Brookings Institution report also said. “The CBO estimate includes fewer deportations than our estimate, and CBO also assumes voluntary out-migration falls in response to increased enforcement activity, whereas we assume it rises.”
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