With the Iran war going very poorly, President Donald Trump has given increasing indications that he is looking for an off-ramp. He made the mistake of listening to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and other hawks in the run-up to the war, and now their Pollyannish predictions have all fallen flat. Declaring victory and getting out as soon as possible is far and away the best option available.
U.S. soldiers have been killed and injured, oil prices are skyrocketing as the flow of oil is choked off, Iranian reprisals continue to strike Israel and Gulf Arab countries, and the Islamic Republic—despite absorbing heavy blows—is consolidating support from its base following the killing of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In short, the war is largely going according to Iran’s plans. The American people were never convinced of the merits of this war, and the economic impacts have only begun to be felt.
Yet, ending the war is not as easy as simply declaring victory. Key Iranian figures have signaled that they are not seeking a ceasefire and intend to inflict sufficient pain to deter any future attack on Iran. While that pledge is potentially a bluff, Iran does seem to perceive advantages in continuing the war. And time really may be on its side. With damage accruing to America’s sophisticated radar systems and stocks of interceptors depleting, Iran is likely to be able to inflict increasing damage with its missiles and drones as the war drags on. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian—while likely not driving Iranian decision-making in the war—set a high bar for an end to the fighting that includes a recognition of Iran’s rights, guarantees against future attacks, and payment of reparations.
This means that the playbook Trump relied on after the “12-day war” in June, declaring a ceasefire and pressuring Israel and Iran to follow suit, may not work. Even if it did, there are countless examples—including the sudden halt to the June war itself—of a ceasefire or peace deal simply laying the groundwork for a resumption of hostilities later on.
To avoid a Forever War consisting of repeated short conflicts, the U.S. should start thinking about how to stop Israel from dragging it into Mideast hostilities. Iran is Israel’s main regional rival, but Americans have little to gain and much to lose from recurrent conflict with the Islamic Republic. The U.S. should be willing to use its extensive leverage over both Iran and Israel to move to a more stable modus vivendi and begin to address some of the threats that Trump officials indicated were motivations for initiating the war.
In Iran, decades of punishing sanctions have hobbled what should be one of the most dynamic economies in the world, with currency collapse provoking nationwide protests and a brutal crackdown just two months ago. The economic plight afflicting Iranian citizens has largely been masked by war, but on the ground the cost of vital goods has continued to soar while economic activity has diminished considerably amid bombardment and internet shutdowns. What happens once the war ends? Rebuilding a country of more than 90 million people would require massive investment to rebuild oil infrastructure and the electrical grid, along with other key public goods like schools, hospitals, and airports. Yet such investment is effectively ruled out by America’s far-reaching and powerful extraterritorial sanctions.
The U.S. can put sanctions relief on the table, which would serve as powerful leverage to convince Iran’s recalcitrant leadership to stand down. This could take the form of a general license allowing reconstruction to move forward or sectoral relief that would be more far-reaching.
The extent of sanctions relief could be determined by what steps Iran is willing to offer in turn that address some of Trump’s goals vis-a-vis Iran. Iran would be expected to agree to allow the unfettered movement of oil tankers and other ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which would stabilize the global economy. Additionally, to address nuclear concerns, Iran could invite IAEA inspectors back into its nuclear facilities and provide assurance that it will not weaponize its nuclear program. These would be significant gains if they were achieved, and would be far more likely to prevent a nuclear weapon than the extremely dangerous idea of sending in ground troops to try securing Iran’s old enriched uranium stockpile from bombed-out facilities.
Separately, to mitigate concerns about renewed missile strikes, the U.S. and Iran could agree to a non-aggression pact. Effectively, the U.S. would not strike Iran if U.S. forces and interests are not struck by Iran in turn. If Israel is interested in joining the non-aggression pact, all the better, though it shouldn’t be contingent on the reckless decision-making of Benjamin Netanyahu and like-minded Israeli politicians. And Trump should make absolutely clear to Netanyahu that the U.S. won’t come to Israel’s defense if it launches another war.
By listening to those gung-ho for war with Iran, President Trump made a catastrophic mistake that harms U.S. interests. Fortunately for him, he has significant leverage on his side. Declaring victory and simply going home might not be an easy option, particularly as Iran and Israel have significant votes on the matter. But by using American leverage creatively, he can restore a degree of calm and potentially secure a few modest wins in the name of peace.
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