As the prognosticators and planners inside the Acela corridor were rolling out of bed last Wednesday morning, the votes in Alaska’s open Senate primary were still being counted. The former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola had opened a commanding lead over the Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, notching 48.1 percent to Sullivan’s 42.7 percent (a margin that, with most of the votes now counted, has continued to hold).
Last week’s race doesn’t determine who gets Alaska’s Senate seat; rather, the nonpartisan primary simply narrows a crowded field to the top four vote-getters, who will then advance to a November general election that will be decided by ranked-choice voting. Both the GOP and Democratic nominees have cleared that bar comfortably. But the incumbent Republican will not be the only Dan Sullivan on the ballot in November. Dan Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher and registered Republican, recently won a legal fight to stay in the race despite accusations of sabotage by the Alaska Republican Party.
With the midterm congressional elections less than three months away, Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority in the Senate. Democrats must pick up four seats to win the majority, a prospect that seemed unthinkable when President Donald Trump took back the White House in November 2024. But as the American economy struggles under the weight of the Iran War, and Trump’s approval numbers crater to historic lows, Democrats are surging nationally. And Alaska is one of the places where the shift is showing up.
Peltola’s strong performance wasn’t entirely surprising, even in a state Trump carried twice. The first Alaska Native and first woman to represent Alaska in Congress, Peltola made a name for herself as an independent operator in Washington, DC. Though a registered Democrat, Peltola has defended the oil industry vital to the Alaskan economy, supported gun rights in a state that lives for hunting, and shown a willingness to work with Trump when it could benefit her constituents, regardless of how it might look to other congressional Democrats. Running on the slogan of “Fish, Family, and Freedom,” Peltola highlighted her independent streak with a timely ad released on social media early Wednesday morning as the results were being finalized.
In Alaska, where ranked-choice voting has become the standard method of deciding elections, Sullivan Jr.’s inclusion has drawn the attention of Republican strategists bracing for a race that could come down to a fraction of a point. His candidacy is the kind of long-shot, trend-defying entry that regularly turns up in Alaska. In a state where voters and candidates often buck the simple logic of the two-party system, Sullivan Jr. is a unique feature, not a bug.
“I don’t think the Republican Party needs to be the MAGA party,” Sullivan Jr. told the New York Times reporter Kellen Browning. “My dad and my grandfather were Republicans who taught me my work skills, my skills to be a good father and a husband and how to be a kind human being.” In response to Sullivan Jr.’s candidacy, Trump’s Department of Justice issued two subpoenas on Wednesday to probe whether he had entered the race with the intent to confuse voters.
Another wrinkle is the progressive Democrat David Leslie, clinging to fourth place by a mere 17 votes as of this writing. Though Peltola’s centrist stance on guns and the oil industry has frustrated Alaska’s small but potentially critical progressive base, she could benefit from Leslie’s potential inclusion on the general election ballot. If Leslie holds his fourth-place position and reaches the general, his supporters could play an outsized role in a ranked-choice election in which second-choice votes could be decisive.
How much the presence of Sullivan Jr. and Leslie will determine the eventual outcome is tough to discern. If no candidate receives a majority on the first round, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and those ballots are then redistributed according to the voters’ next choice. If Leslie makes the ballot and finishes in fourth, as he did in the primary, it’s reasonable to expect a decent share of those votes will end up with Peltola. It might be just enough to push the former congresswoman across the finish line.
But if Leslie’s votes aren’t enough, Sullivan Jr., the man Republicans have cast as a spoiler, could become the decisive figure. With 2.4 percent of the primary vote (more than 3,000 votes), Sullivan Jr. would remain on the ballot after Leslie’s elimination and could force another round of counting. If he is eventually eliminated, where his supporters’ second choices go could determine whether the incumbent Dan Sullivan holds his seat. If critics of Dan Sullivan Jr.’s campaign are correct, perhaps that vote breaks in Peltola’s favor, earning him the spoiler label.
Alaska isn’t necessarily the most likely Democratic pickup, but it’s a seat that looked a lot more secure for Republicans six months ago than it does today. If Peltola can win Alaska, the prospect of Democrats capturing the Senate becomes far more plausible (Democrats would still need to win three more states to get to 51).
Peltola was always going to be a tough out in Alaska. She is a well-liked professional who has shown the capacity to operate in a bipartisan manner when it benefits her constituents. That’s a rare combination in Washington these days, and her pragmatism has helped make this a race Republicans can’t afford to take for granted. In a year when control of the Senate is an open question, the peculiarities of Alaska could make every vote count.
Read the full article here
