Last month I wrote about some disturbing links between the wars in Ukraine and Iran and the specter of a perilous American conflict spanning Eurasia and the Middle East.
This weekend brought a new development on that front: The two wars started converging into a perilous American conflict spanning Eurasia and the Middle East.
On Saturday, Ukraine said it had struck ships transporting Iranian-linked military cargo in the Caspian Sea. The next day, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi alleged that Ukraine had actually struck “an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor.” Araghchi and other senior Iranian officials warned that Ukraine’s attack won’t go unanswered.
For now, Iran is providing its answer via diplomacy, summoning a Ukrainian diplomat based in Tehran for a dressing-down. But Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says military retaliation is likely. “Ukraine has just pushed the envelope, and no doubt the new Iranian leadership, which has a far higher risk appetite, will respond directly against Ukraine,” Geranmayeh told The American Conservative.
Now, you might suppose that nobody sane would want the world’s hottest wars to ignite into a global conflagration. But several world leaders have an interest in raising the temperature.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is only the most obvious example, and it’s likely no coincidence that he authorized the attack ahead of his White House visit scheduled for today. Zelensky has struggled to win over President Donald Trump, a transactional leader who yawns at highfalutin talk about the global defense of democracy.
For all we know, the vessels struck by Ukraine were carrying weapons from Iran to Russia, not the other way around, but Zelensky has created the opposite impression. He thus seized a rare chance to showcase the supposed benefits Washington derives from its partnership with Kiev, and he then promptly engineered another such opportunity. Mere hours after announcing the Caspian Sea attack, Zelensky alluded to Ukrainian intelligence showing that Russia has been helping Iran target U.S. bases in the Middle East.
Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute warned Monday that Zelensky is trying to “merge” the two conflicts to make America a “belligerent in the Ukraine war.” The accusation, though extreme, is disconcertingly plausible. As Parsi noted, Zelensky has tried to draw America into the Russia–Ukraine War ever since it kicked off in early 2022.
Now would seem a key moment for Zelensky to intensify that effort. Despite all the recent talk about Ukraine “turning the tide” against Russia, it’s been getting pummeled by air attacks and remains locked in a war of attrition with a much larger adversary. Zelensky observed Monday that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin “is not ready to stop this war” and could mobilize hundreds of thousands of Russians after parliamentary elections in September.
Just as Zelensky wants America to help Ukraine fight Russia, Trump has urged European nations to help America fight Iran. So far, European leaders have demurred for fear of provoking Iranian strikes on their countries. But if Iran responds to Ukraine’s attack with a military strike, the Europeans could become more amenable to Trump’s entreaties. They’ll also gain a new talking point as they nudge Trump to increase aid for Ukraine.
Geranmayeh said the Islamic Republic “knows it will need to calibrate this response to avoid opening a new war front with Europe.” That’s comforting to hear, but the risks of miscalculation remain. Tehran may underestimate Europe’s willingness to aid Kiev, as Putin did when he launched Russia’s invasion over four years ago expecting a swift victory.
Zelensky isn’t the only leader of a U.S. client state visiting the White House today. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu too will meet with Trump—and he also stands to benefit from the war in Iran fusing with the one in Ukraine. Parsi told TAC this merger “achieves several objectives” for Netanyahu:
It gives war with Iran another lease on life, it brings the Europeans into the war as well through the merger, and perhaps most importantly, war with Iran is reframed as defending Ukraine rather than defending Israel.
That last point is crucial. With the Iran War paused and even MAGA voters turning against it, Netanyahu aims to coax America back into the conflict without worsening the impression that he’s pushing Trump to fight a war for Israel.
Trump should be on guard as Zelensky and Netanyahu arrive, hats in hands, to Washington. Both will push for greater U.S. military assistance, and both will frame their demands as serving American interests. Unless Trump wants to go down as the president who sparked World War III, it’s imperative that both men leave the White House empty-handed.
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