The Iran War may be entering its final phase, though the durability of any ceasefire remains uncertain. So who won? It’s complicated.
Much of the discussion of the war’s meaning, even as it drags on, focuses on how it has already damaged Donald Trump politically. But the talk now is almost exclusively about how the war’s failure will help Democrats crush the Republicans in November. That misses at first that any missteps, any failures, and any successes are America’s to reckon with from now on, not simply some trite shot at a hated president. Wars belong to the nation, not to a particular administration. It may have once been called Johnson’s and Nixon’s war, but the Vietnam vets who still suffer today are America’s. The outcome of the Iran War should not be hooted and cheered as if it were another simple downturn in the polls. Lost in the pile-on is a more important question: What did the war achieve? The answer may lie in the 14-point memorandum of understanding that could mark the end of the fighting.
History, as always, will be the final judge (as it will judge whether Barack Obama’s or Trump’s agreement was better) but the text of the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran points in a possible positive direction. If the MOU can be translated into actual day-to-day relations, it opens the door for a new pattern for two countries that have been at war with each other for decades in a multigenerational regional power struggle.
Chief among the hopeful parts of the MOU is Paragraph Eight, which states in part, “The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA.” If this works, it means no nukes for Iran. It would sharply limit Iran’s ability to coerce its neighbors and alter the regional balance of power. It means ending the apocalyptic threat to Israel, always a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. It means no future strikes by the U.S. or Israel to brush back Iranian nuclear plans. It means no Iran with fissionable material to sell or barter globally. Yes, the MOU wording is vague in places (but quite specific in others), and yes, the Iranians have cheated on past agreements. But if Paragraph Eight can be effectively implemented, it will justify the recent war by preventing future ones.
Another critical part of the MOU is Paragraph 7, which explains, “The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.” This paragraph joins several others regarding the release of Iranian assets held in U.S. banks and the removal of restrictions on Iran selling oil on the global market as the carrot for the no nukes pledge (the stick, of course, being the reimposition of sanctions backed up by B-2s). The heavy sanctions Iran has faced since the 1979 Islamic Revolution have raised the price of everything inside the country and basically control the consumer economy. For example, after the reimposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018, Iranian oil exports fell sharply from roughly 2.5 million barrels per day to well under 1 million barrels per day for a period. Sanctions restricted Iran’s access to foreign currency and the international banking system, weakening the rial. This has made imports more expensive and fueled inflation. Sanctions have all but shut off large-scale foreign investment, restricted access to needed medical and civilian aviation technology, and reduced trade.
What decades of sanctions have not done is stop Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. Removing sanctions, in measured stages as Iran complies piece by piece with the no-nukes pledge, will reintroduce Iran into the world economy. Peaceful trade with other nations has been at the center of the world order the United States created following the Second World War. Success here could possibly replace Obama’s Libyan no-nukes disaster (surrendering strategic weapons leaves a regime vulnerable to later coercion) with a lesson that Cuba and North Korea might take note of.
There is one loaded gun in the MOU, something which could cause the rest of the agreement to fail. One hopes the final agreement between the U.S. and Iran dramatically revises Paragraph 5, which states, “Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf.” It is possible to understand the U.S. conceding to this faint language at this stage to secure the rest of the agreement, but it is critical that after the final deal Iran not control the strait by any means, including some sort of fee, insurance, or toll system.
Granting any measure of control of the strait to Iran would set a catastrophic precedent. After the Second World War Washington created a world economic system that depended in large part on the United States Navy safeguarding global freedom of navigation, a principle that underpins international trade and economic stability today. With a forward-deployed presence in key maritime chokepoints and with carrier groups in all oceans, the world’s most powerful navy ensures that sea lanes remain open in accordance with international law. No other nation comes close to being able to play such a role. Europe’s sea power has not been able to do so since the collapse of the British Empire, and China lacks the blue-water navy and extensive worldwide base network to try. It would be strategically devastating for America to follow the regional empowerment of Iran through its failures in Iraq and Afghanistan by handing over a global lever of control. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz cannot become a bargaining chip. The consequences will extend far beyond the Middle East, reshaping the global order in ways the United States may not be able to reverse.
This war with Iran is not over, but it has reached a stage where its ultimate significance can be decided. The MOU and what happens next show that the war need not be a waste, and that the outcome is still in play even as the guns fall silent. The verdict lies not on the battlefield but in whether the MOU survives implementation—a verdict that, as yet, remains unwritten.
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