The United Kingdom is famously a multinational state—encompassing Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and England—and has been, essentially, since the Act of Union was passed back in 1707. But the ties that bind these nations together have been loosening.
In the May 2026 Scottish parliament elections, the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) secured its fifth consecutive election victory, under First Minister John Swinney. In Wales that same month, a century of Labour electoral dominance came to an end as the nationalist Plaid Cymru won a majority in the Welsh Parliament. That installed Rhun ap Iorwerth as first minister of Wales.
Northern Ireland is already led by a nationalist first minister, Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill, who has been in power since 2024. Her party used to be the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), and, though the IRA renounced violence after the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, militant republicanism still exists on the fringes of Irish politics.
And on Monday in Cardiff, the three nationalist chiefs took what they say will be the first step in a democratic process that will bring the UK to a peaceful end. They signed a memorandum pledging to work together to promote “self-determination” for all the kingdom’s constituent parts. (Except, of course, for England, which is assumed by virtue of its size and power already to possess this.) All three leaders want referendums in their respective homelands on leaving the Union.
They say that the peoples of Britain’s Celtic fringe are after nothing less than the power to determine their own political destinies. And while Westminster continues to try to brush off these demands, there is definitely a sense that history is moving in the separatists’ direction, albeit at different speeds.
Wales, having only just elected its first nationalist government, is not pushing for independence immediately, though that is definitely Plaid’s long-term objective.
Scotland, however, had a referendum on leaving in 2014, during which the option to remain in the UK won by 55 percent to 45 percent—a convincing victory for the Union. Curiously, though, the party of independence grew stronger in the aftermath of that defeat.
In the 2015 general election, Scottish nationalists won an astonishing landslide, taking 56 out of 59 of Scotland’s seats in Parliament. Had that result happened in the previous century, it would very likely have been recognized as a mandate to open negotiations on independence.
The SNP’s support has declined since then, but it remains the dominant party in Scotland. And Swinney claims that his party’s fifth straight victory represents a mandate for a repeat referendum.
If another vote were to happen, it would be very close, according to the opinion polls. A survey conducted last month suggests that 47 percent of Scots would go for independence, against 43 percent who would vote to stay.
The UK government has given no timetable for any repeat test of opinion in Scotland. But there is a timetable of sorts for a referendum, or border poll, in Northern Ireland under the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which ended the 30-year civil war in the province.
As part of the negotiations that would eventually produce this landmark deal, the British government renounced any “selfish strategic or economic interest” in Northern Ireland. All parties also agreed the province’s fate would be decided via referendum, if there were ever to be widespread support for a change to the political status quo. Crucially, this test of opinion should only happen once every seven years.
The SNP now says that this standard should apply to Scotland as well, and notes that it is more than seven years since the last independence referendum. But British governments have always maintained that there is no equivalence here, because the Good Friday Agreement was unique to the circumstances of Irish history.
Last week, however, the UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said at Prime Minister’s Questions that the situation in Scotland was “exactly the same” as that in Northern Ireland, and cited the Good Friday Agreement in his remarks.
This has, naturally, raised great expectations among Scottish nationalists. They believe that Westminster is now coming round to codifying Scotland’s right to self-determination in law and introducing a septennial test of whether or not Scots wish to remain in the UK.
But they shouldn’t get their hopes up. The prime minister’s office has since insisted that another vote is still “off limits,” whatever that means. And while there is a narrow plurality in Scotland for independence, only around 30 percent of Scots say they want to see a referendum right away.
The truth is that Scots have other things on their minds right now: inflation, the collapse of the North Sea oil and gas industry, a faltering education system, and a sclerotic National Health Service. And there is another, more sinister issue.
Scotland may be divided over the constitution, but no one has ever sought to take up arms over it, bar the odd lunatic. Indeed, the SNP has long resisted any alignment with the politics of Ireland for precisely this reason. Yet Swinney now holds that the IRA is ancient history, and Sinn Féin a normal democratic party.
Some have their doubts. What no one wants is for an aggrieved minority in Scotland to decide that only violent action will secure self-determination—as happened once before across the Irish Sea.
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